Four months ago, China’s leaders announced what seemed like a straightforward and proven plan to recharge the economy: Subsidize consumers who want to replace old cars and household appliances.

四個月前，中國領導人宣布了一項看似簡單而且有效的經濟刺激方案：為想更換舊車和舊家用電器的消費者提供補貼。

The early results are not promising.

這個方案的初步結果不太樂觀。

Only 113,000 cars qualified for trade-in subsidies through June 25 — a blip in a country where monthly sales exceed two million cars. And buyers of new appliances such as washing machines and refrigerators are being offered discounts of only about 10 percent, depending on what city they live in.

截至6月25日，僅有11.3萬輛車符合以舊換新的補貼條件，在一個汽車月銷量超過200萬輛的國家，這個數量微不足道。政府為購買新洗衣機和冰箱等電器的家庭只提供10%左右的折扣，具體補貼金額取決於居住城市。

The incentives are not enough to bring customers into stores.

這些激勵措施不足以吸引顧客進店消費。

“If it is not needed, people will not go out of their way to find an old machine to participate,” said Dai Yu, the manager of an appliance store in Jingdezhen, a city in Jiangxi Province in south-central China.

「如果沒有必要，人們不會特意在家裡找箇舊東西去換新的，」江西景德鎮一個家用電器商店的經理戴宇（音）說。

The idea of providing financial incentives to spur consumer spending is not new.

為刺激消費提供經濟激勵的想法並不新鮮。

In 2009, the United States, Germany, France, Spain and Austria offered so-called cash for clunkers programs to revive car sales. They paid households to scrap gas guzzlers and replace them with newer cars with better fuel economy. China itself gave extensive tax cuts and subsidies for consumers to buy new cars and household appliances. Prices for many appliances were cut in half, particularly for rural residents, and sales surged.

2009年，美國、德國、法國、西班牙以及奧地利都為重振汽車銷售推出過所謂「舊車換現金」的項目。這些國家為家庭提供現金，讓他們報廢耗油的舊車，換上燃油經濟性更好的新車。中國也曾為消費者購買新車和家用電器提供過廣泛的減稅和補貼，將許多家電的售價減半，尤其是對農村居民，導致銷量激增。

The current strategy has been held back by tight eligibility restrictions and limited financing. As often happens, China’s central government has turned the appliance program almost entirely over to provincial and local governments, many of which are struggling with heavy debts and reluctant to offer more generous subsidies. The central government, which has fewer debts, pays 60 percent of the cost of the car subsidies.

但目前的刺激措施有嚴格的限制條件，提供的資金也不多，未產生明顯的效果。與往常一樣，中央政府將為購買家電提供補貼的項目幾乎全部交給省級和地方政府來實施，而許多地方政府正受到巨額債務的困擾，不願提供更慷慨的補貼。債務較少的中央政府則提供汽車以舊換新補貼的60%。

So the effort has not yet fixed one of China’s biggest economic problems right now: weak spending by consumers. Factories have responded by chasing more customers overseas, but that has incited a backlash and trade restrictions by governments in Europe, the United States and developing countries.

結果是，這一努力尚無法解決中國目前最大的經濟問題之一：消費者不願花錢。工廠對此作出的回應是尋求更多的海外客戶，但這已引起了歐美和發展中國家政府的強烈不滿以及貿易限制措施。

The weakness of the cash for clunkers program is evident at an electric car factory and an air-conditioner compressor factory in Nanchang, the capital of Jiangxi.

透過江西省會南昌的一家電動汽車廠和一家空調壓縮機廠，可以清楚地看見中國目前以舊換新項目的不足之處。

The compressor factory’s assembly lines, a maze of yellow robots interspersed with teams of workers dressed in blue, have been running on only one shift a day.

這個壓縮機廠的組裝線上有迷宮般的黃色機器人，身穿藍色工裝的工人穿插在機器人之間。工人每天只上一班。

Several miles away, a money-losing electric car factory is assembling fewer than 30,000 cars a year, even though it has the capacity to make 100,000.

幾公里外，一家虧損運行的電動汽車廠每年組裝的汽車不到3萬輛，儘管其產能是10萬輛。

Factories across China that make electric cars or household appliances are hustling to find export markets. The electric car factory in Nanchang, for example, ships about 3,000 cars a year overseas, but does so in unprofitably small batches to 30 countries.

中國各地生產電動汽車或家用電器的工廠都在忙著尋找出口市場。例如，南昌的這家電動汽車廠每年將3000輛車銷往海外，但是以不賺錢的小批量向30個國家發貨。

Often owned partly or entirely by local or provincial governments, factories need exports to keep their workers busy. And despite weak domestic sales, they are hesitant to lay off workers.

這些工廠通常部分或全部由地方或省級政府擁有，為了讓工人有活可幹，它們需要出口。儘管國內銷售疲軟，但它們不願裁員。

A housing market crash has left millions of Chinese families wary of big-ticket purchases. Yet the state-controlled banking system, acting under direction from Beijing, is lending hundreds of billions of dollars a year to build and expand more factories.

由於房地產市場崩潰，數百萬中國家庭對購買售價高的商品持謹慎態度。儘管如此，國有銀行系統在中央政府的指示下，每年仍發放數千億美元的貸款用於工廠的建設和擴建。

Chinese automakers have gone from selling almost no electric cars in Europe four years ago to capturing about a quarter of its market this year. That success, together with evidence that China has subsidized its electric car industry, has prompted the European Union to draft tariffs on these imports.

中國的汽車製造商四年前幾乎不向歐洲銷售電動汽車，而今年已佔據了歐洲電動汽車市場約四分之一份額。這種成功，以及中國補貼電動汽車行業的證據，已引發歐盟起草對中國電動汽車進口徵收關稅的計劃。

European and Chinese officials agreed on last month to hold talks to avoid tariffs, but the two sides remain far apart. European officials insist that the electric vehicle supply chain in China is subsidized. Chinese officials affirm that there are no subsidies, and that their industry’s growth reflects innovation and manufacturing efficiency.

雖然歐盟和中國的官員們上個月同意為避免關稅舉行談判，但雙方仍存在很大分歧。歐洲官員堅稱，中國為其電動汽車供應鏈提供補貼。中國官員則堅稱不存在補貼問題，中國電動汽車行業的增長反映的是創新和製造效率。

The cash for clunkers plan to stir consumer spending has high-level political support. In March, Premier Li Qiang, China’s second-highest leader after President Xi Jinping, ordered that local and provincial governments should “promote large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in of old consumer goods.”

中國為刺激消費提供的以舊換新計劃得到了高層的政治支持。今年3月，中國總理李強要求地方和省級政府「推動新一輪大規模設備更新和消費品以舊換新」工作。李強是位置僅次於國家主席習近平的中國二號領導人。

But debt-ridden local governments have not put enough money into the programs. The national government has been reluctant to help out. As a result, the discounts being offered to consumers have ranged from modest to penurious.

但負債累累的地方政府沒有為這些項目投入足夠的資金。中央政府也一直不願提供幫助。結果是，政府向消費者提供的折扣不大或微不足道。

Luo Yu, an office worker in Jingdezhen, walked out of Mr. Dai’s appliance store with empty hands on a recent evening, unimpressed with a 10 percent discount. “Why replace them if they’re not broken?” she asked.

最近的一個晚上，辦公室職員羅宇（音）空著手從戴先生的家用電器店走了出來，她對10%的折扣並不滿意。「如果東西沒壞，為什麼要換新的？」她問道。

Subsidies for electric cars are scarcely more generous. Most cars must be at least 13 years old to qualify for replacement. Only about 10 million of the country’s 250 million registered cars are eligible.

為消費者購買電動汽車提供的補貼也算不上慷慨。大多數汽車必須至少使用了13年才符合更換資格。全國2.5億輛註冊汽車中，只有約1000萬輛滿足這個條件。

Owners of old cars receive a subsidy of $1,380 — a tenth or less of the cost of all but the cheapest cars — if they trade them in for a new battery-electric car or plug-in hybrid car. The subsidy is $960 if they trade in an old, heavily polluting car for a new model with a small gasoline engine that meets the latest emission standards.

舊車的車主們購買新電動汽車或插電式混合動力汽車時，如果將名下的舊車報廢註銷的話，他們將獲得1萬元的補貼，這隻相當於最便宜的電動汽車價格的十分之一或更少。如果他們以舊換新的舊車是污染嚴重的車型，購買的符合最新排放標準的小型汽油發動機的新車，他們得到的補貼是7000元。

By comparison, the United States gave subsidies of $4,500 per car in 2009. That cash for clunkers program was so popular that General Motors, Ford Motor and other automakers increased factory output and called back some idled workers.

相比之下，美國2009年為購買汽車提供了每輛4500美元的補貼。該「舊車換現金」的方案非常受歡迎，以至於通用汽車、福特汽車和其他汽車製造商都增加了產量，還召回了一些閑置的工人。

China’s automakers and banks are also providing discounts and loans to help sales. But industry leaders acknowledged that many car shoppers were unenthusiastic.

中國的車企和銀行也為促進銷售提供折扣和貸款。但行業領導人承認，許多購車者並不熱心。

“Consumers are still reluctant to trade in their cars for now,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association. “It will be a gradual process.”

「消費者們目前仍不願意以舊換新，」中國乘用車市場信息聯席會秘書長崔東樹說。「這將是一個漸進的過程。」

Xu Xingfeng, the director of the commerce ministry’s department of consumer promotion, said at a news conference last week that the pace of car trade-ins “showed an accelerating growth trend.”

商務部消費促進司司長徐興鋒在上週的新聞發布會上說，汽車以舊換新「呈現加快增長態勢」。

Sales of battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrid cars are rising in China. But that increase has been offset by a drop in sales of gasoline-powered cars. Total car sales in China in May were little changed from the same month last year.

中國的純電動汽車和插電式混合動力汽車的銷量正在上升。但這種增長被汽油動力汽車銷量的下降抵消。中國5月份的汽車總銷量與去年同期相比變化不大。

Appliance sales were fairly strong this spring, but not enough to keep up with factory output. Manufacturers with overcapacity are cutting prices to compete, part of a broad decline in many prices in China. They are finding customers overseas: The number of appliances exported rose 27 percent in May from a year earlier.

雖然今年春季的家電銷售相當強勁，但仍不足以跟上工廠產量增長的步伐。產能過剩的製造商正在降價競爭，這是中國許多產品價格普遍下降的一部分。這些工廠也正在海外尋找客戶：今年5月的中國家電出口額比去年同期增長了27%。

With cash for clunkers, the government pushes consumers to buy from big manufacturing industries. But in cities like Jingdezhen, a pottery-making hub for more than 1,000 years, there are hints that China’s consumers would spend more if the government gave them cash instead and let them choose how to spend it.

政府通過以舊換新鼓勵消費者購買大型製造業的產品。但在景德鎮這樣的城市，已有跡象表明，如果政府直接把現金交給消費者，讓他們選擇如何花錢的話，中國消費者們花錢的意願會更高。景德鎮是有1000多年歷史的陶瓷製造中心。

Thousands of young people, including many recent graduates who face a very tough job market, throng Jingdezhen’s 31-acre open-air pottery market. They spend lots of time but little money.

在景德鎮佔地190畝的露天陶器市場能看到成千上萬的年輕人，其中包括許多面臨嚴峻就業市場的應屆畢業生。他們花很多時間逛市場，但幾乎不花錢買東西。

Wang Yajun has long sold hand-painted statuettes of Chinese gods at her booth. She now paints and sells less expensive refrigerator magnets as well.

王亞軍（音）一直在自己的攤位上銷售手繪的中國神仙瓷塑。她現在也銷售自己繪製的價格更低的冰箱磁貼。

“People find it hard to accept products with higher prices,” she said. “Cheap products may perform better.”

「人們很難接受高價商品，」她說。「便宜的產品也許銷路更好。」