@Dan Ciccone: Fake News!

@Joe Mandese

Are you going to provide an update article on all of the "news" organizations that are retroactively changing their stories where they all referred to Harris as the border czar?  The video footage is endless and cannot be erased from the likes of MSNBC, FOX News, CNN, etc., but the sources you reference have retroactively changed their headlines and stories.

The fact that these organizations are actively changing stories to remove Harris from her role with the border goes against all journalistic standards, it is alarming, and it is literally the characterisitc of state run media.

You're stupposed to be the media industry watch dog - not the media industry lap dog.

When Kamala said, "DO NOT COME" - what was she talking about if not the border?

Delusional take. R.I.P. 

Thank you Ed.   I must redact what I wrote because it was part of a TV news report that I saw and was very suspicious.   I have been trying to track it down without any luck, so I apologise.

I suspect that it might have been associated to the reporting of 72% who thought Biden should step-down and then some form of extrapolation may have arrived at a 60.40 if he didn't.

John, I don't recall seeing any poll that had Trump over Biden by 20 points on a national basis. And, in fairness, it should be noted that all of the pollsters sample balance to bring whatever sample they got into line with the population and, sometimes by party affiliation as well. That's not a perfect solution for a bad sample---but it helps.

The main problem with most polls is the fact that many respondents are not giving true answers. For example when they take realative unknowns like the Dem's California and Michigan gevernors and ask national sampes if they are preferred over Trump many people who dislike Trump claim thay would vote for the Democrat---but this is just a reflex anti-Trump response. If they had been asked about Elmer Fudd---a Warner Bros cartoon character of the past he, too, might have beaten Trump in the polls taken after Biden dropped out of the race.

I just don't believe you will ever see a president that is a uniter in my opinion just the way this environment in my opinion on either side. I hope it can somewhat can get to that but it will be years or decades if it ever happens. That is why there needs to be a strong 3RD party to light a fire under the 2 party system which seems you get the 2 evils in my opinion. This election once again is the 2 evils with Trump & Harris and also with Biden before he dropped out.  

Joe, I liked your phrase "I can tell you it still is shifting roughly daily and at some points, intraday" when discussing that the political news cycle had already compressed to daily.

In essence there seems to be a massive amount of volatility.

But I wonder whether the volatility is in the people's opinions or is the volatility in the opinion research.   One example was was that at one stage when Biden was stumbling one of the polls had Trump 60-40.   Biden steps down and Harris steps in and the next poll I saw was Trump 48-52.

I think thaty shows that the fascination to get data quicklyy and put it in the media, and I admit that it is hard to assess from AU.   But thoses two polls imply that 12% of voters who were pro Trump were no longer pro-Trump is a matter of days.   I find that extremely unlikely as the Trump MAGAs seem to be welded on.

But why is that happening?

My guess is that many polls are now based on speed, low cost and being first into the media.   To do that there will probably an implied accuracy because we did a n=3,000 (or some number) poll and as long as they get 3,000 that is accurate.   Those 'rules' employed in the '60s and '70s and maimnluy were by telephone, mail or door-to-door.   Behind all that were requirements of fair geographic distribution, gender matching the census, have the age distribution close to the census ... and for some polls occupation, inceom etc,

These days they just push out an on-line questioannire and once the n=xxxx quota is met that the job is done and rapidly reported.   It is now endemic globally.  I think that FiveThirtyEight's accumulation of numerous sources has the best chance of being within coo-eee of being on the money.

I am sure readers of MediaPost would appreciate hearing commentary by CLIENT SIDE MARKETERS who believe that principal media is a good thing ... for the clients, that is.  Are there any takers?

Whoa

Hi Joe – Thanks for the shout out. Your prediction that there will be more prediction-key breakers to come is likely accurate. After this tumultuous election run up, Allan Lichtman might have to go back to the drawing board and reassess the 13 keys, maybe add another key for debates and one for assassination attempts. Although, it’s important to note that his 13 keys’ 2024 presidential election prediction has yet to be proven wrong. The jury is still out. Regarding the prediction markets, they’re not all equal. IEM has consistently predicted a democratic victory while PredictIt moves up and down more like the polls. What I find most fascinating recently is how current events are rewriting the future as measured by prediction science. It’s like watching the future unfold before it happens.

Sales growth, which corporate profits are dependent on, is difficult when the aspirational luxury consumer is feeling the squeeze of high cost of living, large credit card debt, high interest rates, and a softening labor market for professionals. 

The NBA made a huge mistake WBD did match the Amazon deal which WBD can and should sue the NBA on the fact that they could match any offer and they did and should get the Amazon  NBA package. As that package will flop and be not as good as you see the NBA needs WBD more than WBD needs the NBA.

Pew assumes voters seek high-level information when many probably rely most on party affiliation for guidance. Mencken said it best about not losing money "by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people"

Odd, as no station I've heard of guarantees the ratings for individual spots. It's always for a total schedule --which may be  one-week, or a two-week or a four-week or a six-week buy. The station and the buyer merely add up the rating points---or, now, the "impressions"--generated and compare them,in aggregate , to what was promised---if such a guarantee was even made.

@Ken Fadner: Excellent point.

There are many hypocritical elements to this particular MAGA Republican talking point about Kamala Harris' role vis a vis the southern border, and it is worthy of greater introspection and public debate.

Personally, I think the reason they are doubling down on it, is because they don't have anything else they think will stick.

The No. 1 issue for American voters -- the economy -- is doing great. And the latest consumer confidence data shows sentiment has even improved on the only lagging economic issue: inflation.

(Ironically, the No. 2 issue is political extremism and threats to democracy, so obviously, they're not going to touch that one.)

No. 3 is immigration -- due largely to MAGA Republican falehoods and rhetoric -- though that has been waning as a sticking point in recent months, probably because as President Joe Biden pointed out last night, there actually are fewer illegal immigrants coming across the border than during the last administration.

Every other issue is an also-ran, and crime, which is a distant No. 4, also has gone down.

Bottom line is they don't have anything to attack Kamala Harris on except a false fact, or trivial characteristics like the way she laughs.

It will be hilarious if she laughs all the way to a seat behind the Resolute Desk.

What exactly are you hoping for Tom? Donald Trump uber alles?

Thanks, Joe, for using the facts to set the record straight on the "Kamala and the border crisis" misinformation being perpetrated by the right. While we're at it we might remember that the most recent bi-partisan congressional efforts to addrss the actual problems at the actual southern border were scuttled by DJT because he wanted to keep the "out-of-control" border crisis as his main issue in the current campaign. One thing we can count on is -- that guy has no interest whatsoever in anything other than himself.

Interestingly, there is not one word about what I think is the money that should be paid to the publishers. Clearly, at least in my case, not one third party data collector/company/reseller has reached out. In my opinion, there is another train wreck coming down the tracks if publishers of all sizes is left out. DOJ, are you reading? 

I have always liked Snoop Dogg he is very entertaining.

Coke is my favorite pop I also like Dr. Pepper not crazy about Pepsi and was glad to see Dr. Pepper being number 2 over Pepsi, hope it stays that way for years. 

@D K from Retired: You are welcome to give her any grade you want for anything. Because that's your opinion.

I just don't think you should be spreading misinformation about what she is actually repsonsible for. Because those are facts.

Joe Mandese, so how has she done on this?  

President Joe Biden: "The Vice President has agreed, among multiple other things, to lead our diplomatic effort and to work with those nations to accept the returnees and enhance migration enforcement at their borders – their borders."

Vice President Kamala Harris: "Let’s address the root causes that cause people to make the trek."

Judging by the numbers still pouring in, and another caravan on the way, I'd generously give her a letter grade of "F."

@Bill Duggan: Thank you for adding that.

Long live media neutrality!