Subterfuge Launch and the Future
It’s been 3 weeks since we officially launched Subterfuge, and we figured we’d share some data and talk about our plans for the future in case folks were curious.
FINANCIAL STUFF
So far, Subterfuge has earned $23k ($15k on iOS and $8k on Android). Anyone can play for free, but we charge $10 to unlock some features that useful for players that get really into the game (unlimited scheduled orders, creating private games, playing in rated games, keeping private notes on other players).
What’s interesting is that while iOS revenue spiked higher, Android revenue decayed more slowly. During the most recent week, revenue from iOS and Android have been effectively equal:
Our out of pocket expenses for Subterfuge to date total about $70k. The vast majority of this went to contractors (Android port, art, audio, trailer). This puts us about $47k in the hole at the moment.
On top of that, we each put about 3 years into the game, so if we assume a 40 hour work week, our hourly wage over the last 3 years has been -11 $/hr. That’s a minus there! :)
We’re far from giving up on this game though… more on that below.
INSTALLS / RETENTION
Subterfuge had 113k installs on Google Play, and 107k on the iOS App Store.
The game got a minor feature on both stores, which helped drive a lot of installs. As you can see in the chart below, when the features ended after a week, the number of new daily installs dropped pretty drastically:
At the peak we had about 21k daily active players. This number has been dropping due to normal attrition and the slowing install rate.
It is interesting to observe that the “fit” of the players we got from the features is not as good as those who find the game via other means. You can see that day 7 retention started going up as soon as the features ended. This makes sense intuitively, but cool that the data supports it:
More detail in this chart:
HOW DO WE FEEL ABOUT ALL THIS?
Most importantly, we released a game we’re both very proud of. Our goal from the very beginning was not to appeal to everyone, but for those who are into the game to REALLY love it. The feedback we’re getting from our community has us feeling that we nailed that one.
In terms of finances, we could see three different ways this launch could go:
- Zillions of people downloading, few of those paying (but still a lot).
- Lots of people downloading, few of those paying.
- Few people downloading, few of those paying.
#1 was, let’s face it, not bloody likely for a game like Subterfuge, which is far from mainstream.
#2 is what we ended up with, which means we have some revenue, and potential for growth with better monetization (which we are determined to make not evil).
#3 would have been the “oh well, next project” scenario, because we would have little income and little hope of generating more.
We are happy with #2. We were expecting worse.
THE PLAN MOVING FORWARD…
Now that most of the serious launch issues have been solved, we’re shifting our focus to two long lists we’ve been keeping. One is the list of features we’d like to add, and the other is the list of monetization ideas.
We’re now starting to work on updates for the game that will include at least one item from each list. Our aim for each update is to add at least one new impactful feature that engaged players would appreciate, and one new monetization feature.
After a few of these monetization experiments, we’ll evaluate our progress and decide whether it makes financial sense to keep working on the game.
For those curious about our idea lists, here’s a little taste:
SOME IMPACTFUL FEATURE IDEAS
- Graphs for every stat shown in the intel panel (including projecting expected values into the future)
- A social matrix to allow players to see how often any pair of players in their current game play together and how often/hard they’ve fought (this should help diplomacy counteract wolf packs, multi-boxers, and pre-made alliances)
- Additional game creation options. Things like generator/factory balance, different game speeds, no fog of war, games that run only during specific hours, etc.
- New game modes. Things like tournaments, king of the hill games, team games (2 teams of 4, 4 teams of 2, etc).
SOME MONETIZATON IDEAS
- Ad supported free play: Watch a video ad to unlock unlimited use of the time machine for a limited time. This also addresses the complaint that free players are hamstrung by limiting them to 4 concurrent scheduled orders.
- Selling a “patron” badge: Quite a few players wrote to us to say how much they love the game and that they want to give us more money. Maybe some kind of badge that is prominently displayed could be a source of good feels for those who want to support us?
- Paid tournaments: Monthly and annual tournaments (or some other form of structured play) could be a cool way to engage competitive players and generate an ongoing revenue stream. We’ve already seen from player organized tournaments that a multi-game series adds a really interesting meta-game to each match.
- Selling alternate art: If this model is successful, it’s one that is relatively easy to keep up long term.
- Selling medals that players can gift to other players: Different medals could represent different aspects of play. Loyalty, helpfulness, fun, leadership, cleverness. These would not only serve to bind the community together, but to promote values we think would make it more rewarding for players.
