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What if the Fed Doesn’t Cut?

By Scott Sumner | Jul 31 2024
It’s widely expected that the Fed will cut its target interest rate in September.  Nonetheless, Fed chair Powell insists that the decision will be data dependent.  Suppose the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in September—what will that imply about growth prospects for the fourth quarter of 2024?  Should that lead us to revise ...

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Our Tortoise-like Fed

By Scott Sumner | Aug 2 2024

Fed meetings occur every 6 or 7 weeks and the fed funds target is adjusted in quarter point (25 basis point) increments. In the past, I’ve argued that this procedure is inefficient. I don’t favor interest rate targeting. But if the Fed insists on that policy tool, I’ve suggested that the rate be adjusted much .. MORE

Featured Comment

Maybe it will be forgotten, but it looks rather like exactly what is needed, proposals of how to reform DEI in service to diversity, equity, and inclusion.

Thomas L Hutcheson, August 5

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Finance: stocks, options, etc.

Should the Fed placate the markets?

By Scott Sumner | Aug 6, 2024 | 1

Should the Fed placate the markets? Yes and no. Let’s start with the no. Today’s Bloomberg has a piece by Mohamed El-Erian with the following title and subtitle: The Fed Should Resist Placating MarketsThe central bank needs to avoid being rushed into another policy mistake by making an emergency interest-rate cut. The Financial Times has .. MORE

Labor Market

The Draft Would Reduce Skin in the Game for Most Citizens

By David Henderson | Aug 5, 2024 | 7

In the last 5 weeks, I’ve written two articles on the draft for the Hoover Institution’s on-line publication Defining Ideas. The first made the case against the military draft; the second made the case against universal national service. In responses on the Defining Ideas site, some commenters argued that one advantage of the draft is .. MORE

Free Markets

Deliver Us From Love

By Pierre Lemieux | Aug 5, 2024 | 18

Most people don’t have a reasoned theory to understand how the state and politics work. Many believe mythological stories they caught at home or in school. Many think their own country is unquestionably the best in the world, and their intuitions and beliefs flow from that. We must not disparage ordinary people. The poorer the .. MORE

Economic Education

My Weekly Reading for August 4, 2024

By David Henderson | Aug 4, 2024 | 2

The list this week is quite short. It reflects only slightly less reading. Mainly, it reflects less thinking about what I’m reading because I’m dealing with some personal issues. Top Five US Commercial Partners by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist, July 29, 2024. Now to the excerpt: In discussions of US international economic ties, it sometimes .. MORE

Finance

Why Do Interest Rates Matter?

By Scott Sumner | Aug 4, 2024 | 7

Interest rates are important, but not in the way that most people assume. To see why, it might be helpful to start with an analogy. Why does inflation matter? If you ask the average shopper, they’ll tell you that inflation is obviously bad because the public has to pay more for the stuff they buy. .. MORE

Liberty

The Case Against Compulsory National Service

By David Henderson | Aug 2, 2024 | 19

In my Defining Ideas article last month, “The Draft Is Still a Bad Idea,” I made the case against a traditional draft to obtain military manpower. A related proposal is for a universal draft of young people, male and female, that would give them a choice between military and civilian service. That kind of draft .. MORE

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Book Club

Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings

To Fix Economics, Try Teaching Economics 12

Economics education has major problems. Doctoral programs are churning out applied mathematicians and statisticians with little to no knowledge of price theory. At the undergraduate level, social control (“market failure!”) and activism (“inequality!”) have replaced careful reasoning about markets and politics. Very few programs instill in students an appreciation for the power and universality of .. MORE

Economic Education

My Weekly Reading for August 4, 2024 2

The list this week is quite short. It reflects only slightly less reading. Mainly, it reflects less thinking about what I’m reading because I’m dealing with some personal issues. Top Five US Commercial Partners by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist, July 29, 2024. Now to the excerpt: In discussions of US international economic ties, it sometimes .. MORE

Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings

Teaching Economics 13

In his excellent post titled “To Fix Economics, Try Teaching Economists,” Alex Salter does a nice survey of the some of the best books for teaching introductory economics, intermediate microeconomics, and advanced economics. I largely agree with his evaluations but I have a few differences on the introductory economics and intermediate economics categories. Introductory Economics .. MORE

Book Reviews and Suggested Readings

Looking Back at the Austrian Revival

By Adam Martin

A Liberty Classic Book Review of The Foundations of Modern Austrian Economics, edited by Edwin Dolan.1 What’s so Austrian about “Austrian economics?” The label was originally a pejorative, coined by Gustav Schmoller, a harsh critic of Carl Menger’s work. It was an attempt to attach Menger’s ideas to a “provincial” or unsophisticated area. If he .. MORE

Don Lavoie on the Continuing Relevance of the Knowledge Problem

By Cory Massimino

It was Don Lavoie, not Friedrich Hayek, who coined the term “knowledge problem” in his seminal 1985 National Economic Planning: What Is Left?1 (itself a more accessible and policy-focused distillation of Lavoie’s thesis, under Israel Kirzner, entitled Rivalry and Central Planning: The Socialist Calculation Debate Reconsidered). Lavoie reformulated and clarified the knowledge problem as developed .. MORE

Helmut Schoeck’s Envy: A Theory of Social Behaviour

By Art Carden

A Liberty Classic Book Review of Envy: A Theory of Social Behaviour by Helmut Schoeck.1 I’ve been such a fool, Vassili. Man will always be man. There is no new man. We tried so hard to create a society that is equal, where there’d be nothing to envy your neighbor. But there’s always something to .. MORE

F.A. Hayek: Between Classical Liberalism and Conservatism?

By Pierre Lemieux

A Book Review of Rules and Order, by Friedrich Hayek. Jeremy Shearmur, ed.1 Fifty years ago next year, F.A. Hayek, soon to be awarded a Nobel Prize in economics, published Rules and Order, the first volume of his trilogy Law, Legislation, and Liberty.2 Two thousand and twenty-two marks the publication of a new consolidated edition .. MORE